Day 62: 2020-05-18: Brazil is Burning; Just as we Predicted.

Brazil is Burning; Just as we Predicted. 

After the weekend we have seen massive shifts in the predictions at My Telescope a we track the global spread of the coronavirus pandemic. In our world predictions Brazil is now top of the list to be at the highest risk of virus spread. This is hardly surprising if you have been reading our reports following the chaotic response of their president Jair Bolsonaro, which has resulted in the country now becoming an epicentre of the pandemic. They have a daily death rate second only to that of the USA because the capacity of the country’s robust heath care system has been undercut. Indonesia is now second on the list followed by Peru, but Ecuador which was at number three of Friday has been pushed down to number nine. Sweden has now been pushed off the world list after being at number nine for the past couple of weeks, and Pakistan is no longer in the top ten either. Instead Kuwait and Vietnam are now in the top ten countries with the highest predicted risk of coronavirus spread. 

In the USA New Jersey and New York are finally off the list for states most at risk in the country after dominating for over a month. This means they have hopefully reached the peak and will begin to see a decline in new daily confirmed cases. Maryland has also fallen off the list since Friday and instead been replace by Kentucky at number five. Alabama is at the top of the list with a total fatality count of nearly 500 people already. Former President Obama has criticised President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak saying in a virtual commencement address that:

“This pandemic has fully, finally took back the curtain out he idea that so many of the folks in charge know what they’re doing."

In South America predictions Mexico is now out of the top 5 and Chile has appeared in our predictions at number four. It hasn’t;t been predicted to be at high risk through our data before but with a total of 450 fatalities so far, numbers are looking to be on the rise. 

There have also been dramatic changes in our predictions for Africa over the weekend. South Africa has risen above Algeria to number three and Sudan is a new addition to the list. Although Nigeria is second on the list, it is rapidly becoming an emerging hotspot for the pandemic just as we predicted. In the Nigerian city of Kano, the experience of overwhelmed doctors and gravediggers seems to undermine the relatively low official count. 

In Sweden there have also been large shifts in the data results. As seen before Uppsala has moved off the list after having occupied nearly every place on the list on and off for the past two months. The constant changing of locations at risk in Sweden across the entire country could show a pattern of rapid changing spread throughout all the regions. While this might seem concerning, hospitals have still not reached capacity at any point since the virus was first identified in Sweden and this strategy will only help herd immunity be achieved faster. 

We are sending our thoughts to those in high risk areas, please take care.