Prediction of the Week: 2020-06-15

Welcome to fresh weekly update of My Telescope’s coronavirus predictions!

After the weekend the data we use to predict the spread of coronavirus has shown a lot of changes, both globally and across our individual continent maps.

In our global predictions Indonesia remains on the top fo the list, as most risk of predicted spread. They still have a comparatively low number of cases in terms of the virus spread globally, but the prediction still stands that we will be seeing a rise in case numbers in the near future.

On Friday Iran was predicted to rise on the global maps and it has now moved from 5th to 2nd on the list. They have a considerable amount more confirmed cases than Indonesia with 187k compared to their 39k and quadruple the death toll.

Pakistan wasn’t even on the global predictions before the weekend and then out of nowhere it is 4th most at risk. The nation is desperately trying to urge people to keep following safety guidelines as they can see a rising trajectory that they predict will lead them to 1.2 million cases by the end of July.

Bolivia also wasn’t on the global list or the list for South America before the weekend, and now it is 5th in the world and 2nd most at risk in South America. They have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, under 20k and 611 fatalities. Where this sudden rise in cases is predicted to come from is unsure right now, but if the occurrences in other central American countries are anything to go by then it might possibly be a case of reporting miss-information regarding accurate case numbers, or lack of beds in hospitals across the country.

Egypt, which has been high on Africa’s list for a few consecutive weeks, is now 6th most at risk globally. On Saturday they reported their highest daily increase in both cases and deaths with 1,677 cases and 2 new deaths. In the rest of Africa, Algeria still remains at the top of the list, but South Africa has moved from 5th to 2nd most at risk after the weekend. The same five countries remain in the list for Africa but overall in the continent the number of cases have doubled in the last 18 days, rising to most than 200,000.

USA is down to 8th in our global predictions despite the rapid spike in cases over the weekend and the case numbers continuing to rise over the country bringing the current case total to a staggering 2.14 million. Trump is pushing ahead with presidential campaigns and ensuring that anyone who may contract the virus at any future rally will not hold him responsible. Meanwhile in the USA breakdown Alabama is now 1st at risk of coronavirus spread and West Virginia, which was 1st on Friday, has fallen off the list completely. Arizona is now 2nd & also new to the top five after the weekend, and Texas and Mississippi are also predicted to be at high risk of case numbers increasing in the couple of weeks.

Since Friday the Philippines have amazing fallen from 2nd on the global list to being 9th most at risk, a definite improvement. The case numbers are still rising but are relatively low overall, with still under 30k confirmed cases.

Honduras is finishing off the global predictions at 10th which is surprising. The country hasn’t been in any of our prediction data so far and the country hasn’t been hit too badly but the virus yet, with under 10k cases and just over 300 fatalities. However, toady they start re-opening the economy after three months of paralysis which is probably why we will soon be seeing a rise in case numbers. The country is also 3rd on the list of Central & South America along with Guatemala at 5th, both of which were not on the list before the weekend. Perhaps this is a trend that the virus is now spreading more rapidly up into Central America and moving out of countries like Chile and Colombia which are no longer in the top 5 this week. Brazil, however, still remains at the top.

Canada and Great Britain are two of the countries that have fallen off the global list for this week, however, we are starting to see second waves around the world and the virus still remains very active and volatile.

We are sending our thoughts to those in high risk areas, please take care.

Thanks for Reading!!