Tutorial: Using Share of Search as a leading indicator for marketing & business - Data robustness and making a prognosis

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My Telescope is all about making forward looking prognosis

In order to do so, we need to look at data in 3 different ways:

  • Look at the data sources: to identify that we are getting information from the right people

  • Verify the volumes: to make sure we have enough people making it statistically representative

  • Historical data series: the history: to make sure we identify what is seasonal, what is an anomaly and what typical behaviours there are within the market.

For the last 50 years this has always been done in the same way.

  • Getting the right information was done by inviting the right people to a focus group.

  • The volume was verified by a wider survey to get the confirmation from the critical mass

  • The frequency of which the survey was held, but the interpretation very much depended on the analyst’s historical knowledge or previous data accessibility.

Today, with the 2.5 quintillion bytes in data being generated every day, we can move this more automated and less dependent on the analysts.
getting the right information is by targeting surveys or social listening of the clearly defined groups.

  • the volume is searched for in big data. Not just by investigating what people say (like in a survey) but also by observing how they act.

  • since the internet and databases keep storing vast amounts of data, our system can efficiently dig into them to understand previous market reactions in order to improve predictions.

Rodrigo Pozo Graviz