DAY 51: 2020-05-04: Who Is The WEEK-est Link?
Who Is The WEEK-est Link?
Another week starts covering the spread of the coronavirus with My Telescope. Globally there have been a few changes over the weekend. Brazil has taken over USA in the global predictions and risen to number two, whilst pushing USA down to the third country we predict to be at highest risk.
Reasoning behind this predicted shift when compared to current events could be the method behind Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s madness when it comes to tackling the pandemic. On Sunday he made a speech to hundreds of supporters downplaying the severity of the virus as the number of coronavirus cases blew past 100,000 in Brazil alone.
There is a fond personal alliance between President Donald Trump and the leader of Latin America's largest nation. Their approaches to the pandemic are also similar and Bolsonaro has slammed the lockdowns imposed by regional governors in his country. He has described the coronavirus outbreak as "a fantasy" and "a little flu.” Meanwhile, on social media he said in a since-deleted video: “What I have been hearing from people is that they want to work. Brazil cannot stop or we’ll turn into Venezuela."
Other Latin American countries such as Paraguay and Argentina are taking their own steps to restrict arrivals from Brazil, just as parts of Europe are closed to U.S. travellers. Brazil's economy is collapsing despite anti-social distancing pronouncements from the top.
As in the U.S., matters of science, public health and policy have put the leader in open conflict with professionals and experts in his own government. Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta suggested that Bolsonaro’s snubbing of his social distancing recommendations drives confusion among the nation's 211 million people.
Another change we have seen in our global predictions is that the United Arab Emirates has risen from 6th most at risk to 4th on our prediction list. Apart from this everything else remains the same including the countries with the most predicted decline in number of cases.
Italy is one of the countries on the list despite it having had one of the deadliest outbreaks in Europe is starting its re-opening phase today although protests from politicians, business leaders and mayors confused about the government’s plans have created a sense of chaos. The new regulations state that restaurants can provide takeout services, but trattorias, bars and coffee shops cannot seat customers for some weeks. Thousands of small-business owners have given their mayors the keys to their eateries in complaint, saying requirements will make business impossible.
Spain is also in decline having reported 164 deaths and 838 confirmed infections on Sunday, which are its lowest daily numbers since March when the nation went into lockdown.
The Unstable States of America
Over the weekend there have also been big changes in the USA (as we shall call them, the Unstable states of America). Louisiana has come out of no where and been predicted to be the second most at risk state. South Dakota has also come onto the list for the first time.
On Sunday night President trump predicted that the death toll from the coronavirus pandemic ravaging the country might reach as high as 100,000 in the United States, far higher than he had forecast just weeks ago, even as he pressed states to begin reopening the shuttered economy. Mr. Trump, who last month forecast that 60,000 lives would be lost, acknowledged that the virus had proved more devastating than he had expected but said he believed parks and beaches should begin reopening and schools should resume classes in person by this fall.
“We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people,” he said in a virtual “town hall” meeting on Fox News. “That’s a horrible thing. We shouldn’t lose one person over this.” But he credited himself with preventing the toll from being worse. “If we didn’t do it, the minimum we would have lost was a million two, a million four, a million five, that’s the minimum. We would have lost probably higher, it’s possible higher than 2.2.”
According to the Louisiana Department of Health there are now 29,340 coronavirus cases reported across the state and the health department is reporting 1,969 COVID-19 deaths. To combat this the stay-at-home order has been extended and schools will remain closed for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile in South Dakota, it was reported back in mid-April that a pork plant had tested positive for around 650 coronavirus cases and 1 death. This was the biggest single-source location for the virus in the states and the number of cases made up more than half of all the cases reported in the state. It closed it’s doors to its 3,700 employees. Despite this it was still one of the lowest risk states, however, on Sunday the death toll was 21.
Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are now off the top five predicted most at risk list.
Mexican Stand-off
Mexico has now been predicted as the fifth country most at risk in Central and South America. It is replaced Colombia at number 5 and this could predict a whole host of problems, predominately regarding their reaction with the USA. There is an old saying in Mexico “When the United States gets flu, Mexico gets pneumonia.” This year, it got a new punchline: “So what happens when the United States gets coronavirus?” There are few countries so connected economically. The United States buys more than three-quarters of Mexico’s exports, $358 billion worth in 2019; and it’s home to 11 million Mexican citizens, who sent home a record $36 billion last year — cash that especially helps the rural poor. As the U.S. economy crashes over the cliff, it pulls Mexico along, except Mexico falls harder.
The biggest problem with Mexico’s tackling of the virus, however, seems similar to the crisis in Brazil and their neighbour the States - their presidents. Like Trump, Mexican president Amlo's press briefings focus as much on personal promotion as on offering information. He addresses the pressing matters in Mexico’s public, but not without trolling his opponents or detouring into diatribes on the supposed shortcomings of previous governments. He regularly invokes moral values and cites biblical scripture. He even pulled a pair of prayer cards out of his wallet, saying the images (and personal honesty) helped protect him against coronavirus. When in reality the country is struggling around him and Mexico's health ministry reported 1,383 new coronavirus cases and 93 more deaths on Sunday, bringing the country's total to 23,471 cases and 2,154 deaths.
Algeria At Risk Once Again
Algeria has now risen back up to number 2 whilst South Africa has fallen to place number 4 (maybe the Cuban doctors really are helping!). The same five countries in Africa are still the most at risk though. Algeria has now extended its lockdown until May 14th as its total number of cases raises to 3,517, with 432 fatalities.
In South Africa they have started easing one of the world’s strictest lockdowns on Friday. South Africa has more than 5,600 cases of COVID-19 and concern among health workers remains high. On Friday, health workers, unions and civil society members protested outside one of the country’s best-known hospitals, Chris Hani Baragwanath in Soweto, demanding personal protective equipment.
However, as the country eases down one notch to Level 4 restrictions, many businesses can resume limited operations. Many mines, factories and agricultural businesses can resume work in phases, starting with only a third of employees. Restaurants can reopen for deliveries only and people are now permitted to leave their homes for exercise between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. but the ban on domestic and international travel remains. Even with the easing, sales of liquor and cigarettes remain banned, which some have criticized as puritanical. But health officials warn that smoking might exacerbate respiratory problems experienced with COVID-19. The ban on alcohol sales has reduced brawls and traffic accidents, according to police.
Stockholm isn’t even ON THE LIST!
A lot of changes have occurred in Sweden over the weekend. Stockholm is no longer even in the top five riskiest predicted regions in Sweden when it spent al of that week at number two. Blekinge is now the foremost region at predicted risk in the south of the country. It won’t be until months have past and the world can truly analyse which countries had the best strategy to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, but until that point Sweden will receive a lot of speculation for going against the norm in this instance. Below you can read some of the opinions written recently on Sweden in the news.
Sweden is the interesting news in coronavirus times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12329248
We are sending our thoughts to those in high risk areas, please take care.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/coronavirus-updates.html
https://www.thehour.com/news/article/For-2nd-day-in-row-South-Dakota-reports-no-new-15243644.php
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/mexico-president-amlo-coronavirus-briefings-like-trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/opinion/mexico-coronavirus-economy.html