Wrap of the Week: 2020-05-08

The Power to Predict the Pandemic

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WORLD PREDICTIONS

Another week has passed in 2020’s global coronavirus pandemic and our predictions have been proving incredibly accurate over the past three months. Currently Indonesia is still at the top of the global list of countries predicted to suffer the worst spread of COVID-19. This week on Tuesday the confirmed cases were to 484 which is the highest spike the country has seen in a day thus far. The total confirmed cases as of today has reached 13,112 and the number of fatalities are 943. Since April 1st, the country has seen daily deaths below 10 in only six separate days. However, despite the relatively low daily deaths, the country’s mortality rate of 7.2 percent remains among the highest in Asia.

The strain of coronavirus that has swept across Indonesia is different from at least three other known SARS-CoV-2 strains affecting the rest of the world. The research has so far found at least three different strains of the coronavirus, identified as types S, G and V. The new information contained in the complete genome sequences is expected to help scientists understand the mutations of the virus strains and aid the development of a vaccine.

Brazil is 2nd on the global list and has stayed there for two weeks now. The country’s total deaths have been recorded at 9,190 with 135,773 confirmed cases. Even though they have more deaths than Indonesia our predictions are referencing the spread of the virus. The coronavirus disease pandemic reached Latin America later than other continents with the first case recorded in Brazil on Feb 25, 2020. But now, Brazil has the most cases and deaths in Latin America. The reason Brazil is so high in our predictions is due to several reasons, with perhaps the biggest threat to the COVID-19 response actually being their president, Jair Bolsonaro. When asked by journalists last week about the rapidly increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, he responded: “So what? What do you want me to do?”

His actions have sown confusion as he openly discourages the sensible measures of social distancing and lockdown suggested by state governors and city mayors. He has also lost two important and influential ministers in just the past three weeks. Firstly the Health Minister who strongly criticised Bolsonaro's actions and called for unity, or else risk leaving the 210 million Brazilians utterly confused. Then the second to go was the head of Brazil’s federal police who announced is resignation. These factors along with the 13 million Brazilians who live in favelas, often with more than three people per room and little access to clean water, paints a worrisome picture for Brazil’s future. Such disarray at the heart of the administration is a deadly distraction in the middle of a public health emergency and is also a stark sign that Brazil's leadership has lost its moral compass.

Meanwhile our countries on a predicted decline of coronavirus cases have also remained stable but perhaps not for long. South Korea has reported a small but growing cluster of coronavirus cases linked to a handful of Seoul nightclubs. The country is moving to less restrictive social distancing measure but this might put a roadblock in their original plans.

The UK has also been off our global predictions list for a while but it seems no where near to a decline. The virus has actually revealed unfavourable truths about the country showing that black people in England and Wales are actually twice as likely to die from the coronavirus as white people. This could be due to the longstanding differences in wealth, education, living arrangements and medical history. Dr. Riyaz Patel, an associate professor of cardiology at University College London has commented that:

“This pandemic has not been the great leveller. It’s been the great magnifier, as it were”

The economic forecast for Britain looks pretty dire as well, with the economy expected to contract by 30% in the April-June quarter. The decline for 2020 as a whole is most likely to be around 14% - the worst decline for the British economy since 1706. In order to combat this the National Health Service is moving forward with an app to track the spread of the virus despite questions about its effectiveness. The UK has now recorded 30,615 fatalities from the virus and will be hearing from Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday about the potential lifting of the lockdown restrictions. He says the government will proceed with “maximum caution” when considering easing restrictions, meanwhile Scotland announced its lockdown was being extended. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have the power to diverge from what the government at Westminster decides on the lockdown.

USA

In the USA the states predicted most at risk have remained stable since Monday. However, countrywide nearly 2,000 people died yesterday alone (7th May), taking the total number of fatalities in the country above 67,000. Several states are looking to start easing restrictions by creatively interpreting or otherwise completely disregarding White House guidelines in order to slow the decline of the economy. Seventeen states have not yet reached the benchmark of a 14-day downward trajectory in new cases or positive test rates before opening up again. And yet many have begun to lift lockdown regardless, including Maine, Alabama, Tennessee, amoung others. President Trump was asked about the situation on Thursday and respond with:

"The governors have great power as to that, given by us. We want them to do that. We rely on them. We trust them. And hopefully they are making the right decisions.”

New Jersey is still at the top of our predictions after several weeks now. They have seen the biggest increase with a further 305 deaths over the past 24 hours, meaning our predictions were interestingly yet devastatingly accurate. New York remains the hardest hit state overall although levels in the past few days have fallen from past weeks.

In South Dakota they have been on quite the rollercoaster ride. In mid-April there was a time when the worst seemed to be over and there was a decrease in deaths reported per day and no new cases appearing. However, there has now been a small spike in the number of confirmed infections with 126 new cases having been recorded. They are still doing very well with social distancing measures though and ensuring that the hospitals don’t become overwhelmed.

Louisiana is predicted by My Telescope to be 2nd at risk, and the stats are a little frightening. New cases of coronavirus in Louisiana increased on Thursday by 253, as state health officials reported 41 more deaths from the virus. The state has now reached 30,652 confirmed cases of COVID-19 after conducting more than 196,000 tests. The state reported a total of 2,135 confirmed deaths from the virus, though as with a lot of countries there is space for debate on the figures being reported and officials suspect another 73 deaths may be tied to COVID-19. However, as of Thursday new cases marked a 0.8% increase over Wednesday’s total, and the additional deaths reported reflect a 2% increase.

South America

Countries have stayed the same across the past week, except numbers in Bolivia were predicted to rise yesterday and today cases in Ecuador are predicted to rise. So one can predict the trend that the all the countries are simply increasing in cases together.

Unlike Brazil, Bolivia is taking the pandemic very seriously and will extend its lockdown till the end of this weekend and then the situation will be re-assessed. President Jeanine Anez said Bolivia will move to a "dynamic" or "less rigid" quarantine on May 11, allowing some people to return to work. Her response to the pandemic has been forthright. She imposed a lockdown in March when there were just 24 confirmed cases. The country has registered only 2,081 cases of Covid-19 and 102 deaths which is below the Latin American average although testing has been sporadic. Polls suggest most Bolivians like the tough approach and when she extended the lockdown 76 per cent of people approved.

Ecuador is doing worse off than Bolivia as we predicted with 30, 298 cases and 1,654 fatalities. The healthcare system in Ecuador's second-largest city, Guayaquil, collapsed within a matter of weeks after the outbreak exploded in March. Last month, the port city of nearly three million gained global notoriety when videos surfaced showing dead bodies left in the city's streets after morgues and funeral homes were overwhelmed. Many families made the choice to put loved ones outdoors for fear of infection and because the smells were unbearable. There are multiple pictures not he internet of corpses lying on Ecuador’s pavements, which is both problematic and devastating.

Mexico is also faring badly and now has a total of 29,616 cases, and 2,961 deaths.

Only 0.4 of every 1,000 people in Mexico are being tested for the virus which is by far the lowest of the dozens of nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which averages about 23 tests for every 1,000 people. However, the population is being kept in the dark as the government spreads lies that Mexico has been faring better than many of the world’s largest countries, predicting their final death toll to be around 6,000 when it will probably be a lot more. Doctors in overwhelmed hospitals in Mexico City say the reality of the epidemic is being hidden from the country. The Mexican government is not reporting hundreds, possibly thousands, of deaths from the coronavirus in Mexico City, dismissing anxious officials who have tallied more than three times as many fatalities in the capital than the government publicly acknowledges.

The tourist hotspots in Mexico have also been the location of a serious increase in crime as of late. The areas were seeing a drop in visitor numbers due to this, but now with coronavirus keeping people away it might be more difficult to turn the increasing crime situation around. Visitor numbers to Cancún dropped for the first time in seven years in 2019 due to crime, and now seasonal tourists in Mexico have all but disappeared due to the coronavirus pandemic. Even those who remain are not welcome. In destinations throughout the country, locals have reportedly erected makeshift barricades to keep visitors away, afraid that they may bring the deadly virus with them.

Africa

The continent of Africa has also maintained the same predictions this week with Nigeria being predicted most at risk and Morocco staying at fifth on our list. A study released this week predicts that between 29 million to 44 million people could become infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail. This “would overwhelm the available medical capacity in much of Africa” where there are only nine intensive care unit beds per million people. As of now more than 51,000 people in Africa have been infected and 2,012 have died, but the total number of cases has risen sharply in the past week.

Nigeria has confirmed 3,526 cases and reported 107 deaths and has relaxed its 35-day lockdown in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states following President Muhammadu Buhari's order, given last week during his national address. Buhari concedes the lockdown has hurt the Nigerian economy, especially in non-essential sectors that depend on daily income for survival. Looking at the statistics that South Africa has reported in comparison it might make sense as to why Nigeria remains at the highest predicted risk. In South Africa 8,232 cases have been reported against 161 deaths which is much lower chance of the virus proving terminal in terms of percentage. So perhaps the loosening of Nigeria’s restrictions at this early stage might not be wise if they are not prepared to handle the consequences.

Most countries in Africa though have imposed lockdowns of varying severity that appear to have slowed the spread of the virus. Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, has reported on Thursday that:

“Overall … we are looking at community spread in some countries … We are estimating that this will peak in four to six weeks if nothing is done.”

Sweden

Top areas at risk have stayed consistent this week, but the two areas at the bottom of our predictions, Skåne and Uppsala are now predicted to have numbers on the rise. Overall Sweden has reported 24,623 cases and 3,040 deaths and the government has set a goal of 100,000 coronavirus tests each week by mid-May. However, there is a long way to go before that goal is reached due to confusion over who is actually responsible for getting this down and also how it can be achieved.

Per Sikora, who is responsible for testing in Västra Götaland, said: "The fact that Sweden can do 100,000 tests in a lab, doesn't mean anything as long as we are unable to send out tests to those who need it. "Starting to test, for example, groups of police officers or preschool employees, or private citizens, is nothing that there have been any guidelines on so far. So far, the focus has been on the top two categories [people in hospital and healthcare workers]. We haven't received any request from either the Public Health Agency or Disease Control to test others, so we aren't doing it. That has to come from the state authorities.”

Last week, only 29,000 coronavirus tests were analysed in Sweden. That was up from 20,000 in the week ending April 19th and 10,300 in the week ending March 22nd, but is still less than a third of the goal of 100,000.

In Region Skåne, the number of tests carried out has risen by 25 to 30 percent over the past week, to reach 1,200 weekly tests. This has included drive-in testing for employees in the health and care sectors. The reason for Sweden being on the global prediction list for a couple of weeks now is most probably due to the lax restrictions implemented, however, could it also be because there is soon to be a large increase testing and so there will be a more accurate report of confirmed cases rather than people recovering in their homes without reporting symptoms to the authorities. We shall see.

Other Interesting News on the Coronavirus:

Even England’s top epidemioglogist can’t follow his own rule:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/coronavirus-world-coverage.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200506&instance_id=18251&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=128176077&section=topNews&segment_id=26686&te=1&user_id=f573889576ef8a74e5f0fb297eb9c177#link-3d3cdd5e

Israel is answering the question Sweden is asking:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-antibody-testing.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200506&instance_id=18251&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=128176077&section=topNews&segment_id=26686&te=1&user_id=f573889576ef8a74e5f0fb297eb9c177

Where will YOU travel first?:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/travel/coronavirus-travel-questions.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200507&instance_id=18279&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=128176077&section=backStory&segment_id=26771&te=1&user_id=f573889576ef8a74e5f0fb297eb9c177

We are sending our thoughts to those in high risk areas, please take care.

Sources:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31095-3/fulltext

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/05/06/coronavirus-strain-in-indonesia-different-from-those-of-other-countries-govt-says.html

https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-reports-highest-singleday-rise-in-coronavirus-cases